La predicción de los movimientos migratorios: expectativas, limitaciones y funciones políticas.

The article analyzes the prediction of migratory movements and their practical utility. It mentions that the Frontex and AAUE agencies are developing machine learning models to predict the arrivals of refugees and asylum applications in Europe. Predictive tools are also being developed in the humanitarian and development fields, such as the Jetson project by UNHCR and the Foresight model by the Danish Refugee Council. However, there are persistent challenges in predicting migratory flows due to the complexity of factors that influence migratory decisions and the inherent uncertainty in migratory processes. The lack of coordination and cooperation among the different actors involved in migration and forced displacement is highlighted, and warnings are given about possible risks to human rights and the possibility of using predictions to generate threat scenarios and fuel fears. [Extracted from the article]