Modeling multi-source plastic pollution yield and transport driven by catchment hydrometeorological processes.

• A catchment plastic yield and transport model of multiple sources is proposed. • Model ensemble is adopted to estimate plastic sources and its uncertainty intervals. • The proposed model performs well for both plastic yield and outflow simulations. • Primary plastic sources are solid waste, agricultural film and impermeable surfaces. • Substantial plastic loads are retained in land system due to low loss coefficients. Plastic pollution has emerged as a global environmental concern, impacting both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, understanding of plastic sources and transport mechanism at the catchment scale remains limited. This study introduces a multi-source plastic yield and transport model, which integrates catchment economic activities, climate data, and hydrological processes. Model parameters were calibrated using a combination of field observations, existing literature, and statistical random sampling techniques. The model demonstrated robust performance in simulating both plastic yield and transport from 2010 to 2020 in the upper and middle Mulan River Catchment, located in southeast China. The annual average yield coefficients were found to closely align with existing estimations, and the riverine outflow exhibited a high correlation coefficient of 0.97, with biases ranging from -63.0 % to -21.4 % across all monitoring stations. The analysis reveals that, on average, 12.5 ± 2.5 % of the total plastic yield is transported to rivers annually, with solid waste identified as the primary source, accounting for 37.8 ± 20.7 % of the total load to rivers, followed by agricultural film (26.4 ± 9.8 %), impermeable surfaces (21.5 ± 10.3 %), urban and rural sewage (10.4 ± 5.0 % and 3.0 ± 1.5 %, respectively), and industrial wastewater (0.9 ± 0.7 %). The annual average outflow was estimated to between 9.3 and 43.0 ton/year (median: 23.1) at a 95 % confidence level. This study not only provides insights into the primary sources and transport pathways of plastic pollution at the catchment scale, but also offers a valuable tool for informing effective plastic pollution mitigation strategies. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]