Assessment of future multiple ecosystem services in Central Asia based on the earth system model.

The assessment of future multiple ecosystem services (ESs) is of great significance to regional development. However, future data simulation and climate change impacts still need further research. This paper constructs an assessment framework for future ESs based on the earth system model, which can comprehensively analyze and trade-off carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), habitat suitability (HS), potential production of cereals (PPC), potential production of roundwood (PPR), and potential production of livestock (PPL). Furthermore, we carry out a case study in Central Asia. Based on IPSL-CM6A-LR model, we evaluated the levels of multiple ESs and their comprehensive tradeoffs in 2050 under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP460, and SSP585). The results show that (1) with the increase in carbon emissions (from SSP126 to SSP585), the terrestrial CS and WY in Central Asia will first increase and then decrease in 2050. Notably, SC and HS experience a significant decline under SSP585 (7.76% and 2.20%, respectively), indicating environmental risks associated with high-emission scenarios. (2) Among the five pathways, the middle path (SSP245) strikes a better balance between development and environment. It demonstrates the highest levels of SC, HS, PPR, and PPL. Additionally, CS and PPC witnessed an increase of more than 4%. (3) SSP370 achieves the highest comprehensive trade-off score (1.087), slightly surpassing that of SSP245 (1.086). It exhibits the highest CS and WY among the five pathways. However, its SC, HS, PPR, and PPL are comparatively lower than those of SSP245, being at the intermediate level. We propose directions for the development of Central Asia: A middle pathway should be taken, as well as necessary climate and sustainable policies should be formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]