Predicting the changing insect threat in the UK heritage environment.

Environmental changes affecting museums and historic properties will probably result in increased numbers of insect pests or new species. Databases such as WhatsEatingYourCollection (WEYC) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility have been used along with academic publications to predict such changes in the research presented here. The species mix in the WEYC database seems consistent across major London historic properties. Overall, common silverfish (Lepisma saccharinum) are often reported, although in future there may be an increase in other species such as Ctenolepisma longicaudatum and Ctenolepisma calvum given their increased frequency. Dermestidae (carpet and furniture beetles) may benefit from wood with increasing moisture content, and although not especially abundant, Attagenus smirnovi (brown carpet beetle) and Reesa vespulae (skin beetle) may increase as they have done on the European continent. Tineola bisselliella, a damaging moth, has invoked increasing concern over the last two decades and Cryptophagus spp. (fungus beetles) could mobilise fungal spores under a future climate more favourable to germination. Lyctus brunneus (powderpost beetle) may find future conditions favourable and attack sapwoods used in repairs. Furthermore, Reticulitermes flavipes (subterranean termite) is potentially an accidental import to the UK and may become more common given current temperatures are suitable for survival in well-drained loamy soils, and future climates would allow a presence in the north of England. Warmer conditions can lead to the presence of new species or a migration of species across the British Isles and their spread can also be encouraged through the loan of objects or on packing materials. Factors other than climate, such as changing indoor habitats, new food sources and novel uses of heritage venues can also encourage expanding insect populations. This article summarises these predicted changes in species distribution and outlines their potential threat to heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]