Revisiting the sexual recidivism drop in Canada and the United States: A meta-analysis of 468 empirical studies involving 388,994 individuals.

There is empirical evidence that sexual recidivism rates have been dropping for several decades, but it remains unclear whether this drop is an artifact of changing research methodologies over the years. The current study, therefore, examines whether the sexual recidivism drop is robust while accounting for various methodological factors. The study is based on a systematic review and a quantitative meta-analysis of 468 empirical studies published between 1940 and 2019 that reported sexual recidivism rates. A total of 626 estimations (n = 388,994) of sexual recidivism were retrieved for the study period and of those, 238 were independent observations (n = 196,651). A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted using a meta-regression approach. A series of meta-regression analyses show that, even after accounting for various methodological factors (e.g., study settings, follow-up length, recidivism criteria), there has been a sexual recidivism rate drop of about 45–60% since the 1970s. The study findings confirm the presence of a sexual recidivism drop while recognizing that sexual recidivism rates are sensitive to methodological details. • Sexual recidivism rates reported between 1940 and 2019 were analyzed. • When these rates are pooled and weighted, between 9 and 14% of perpetrators are sexual recidivists. • More recent estimates suggest that about 6% of perpetrators are sexual recidivists. • Sexual recidivism rates have dropped between 45 and 60% since the 1970s. • The sexual recidivism drop does not appear to be the result of changing methodologies over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]