RADIOCARBON EVALUATION OF PLAGUE EPIDEMIC OUTBREAKS IN PREHISTORIC EURASIA.

Recent studies have focused on the bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis (the infective cause of plague): its aDNA has been isolated, and sequenced, since about 5200 cal BP in Latvia (Eastern Europe). Plague afflicted human populations, spreading across Eurasia with a particular evidence during the European Late Neolithic/Bronze Age (LNBA). A dense and reliable pedigree of the pathogens has been reconstructed through direct sequencing of bacterial aDNA. The present paper proposes a procedure to isolate and trace the process of different epidemic outbreaks, by reconsidering the 14C datings of the 31 Eurasian individuals so far identified as affected by Yersinia pestis, in its LNBA- lineage, with sequenced genomes belonging to its different internal strains. The raw 14C dates are grouped by statistical compatibility through Student's t-test and calibrated with the IntCal20 curve, isolating the possible outbreaks and bracketing them through Bayesian analysis. The spread from Europe to Eurasia and the duration of epidemic waves are reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]