Pandemia de COVID-19 e determinantes das exportações brasileiras de carne bovina.

This research aims to analyze the impacts of the new COVID-19 pandemic on Brazilian exports of fresh beef. For this purpose, time series econometrics was used, based on the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model, from 1999 to 2021. In general, there is a direct variation between Brazilian beef exports and the domestic price of beef and the exchange rate. However, an inverse relationship is observed with the foreign income and pandemic proxies. The results indicate that the variables related to beef exports, internal prices, exchange rate, external income and the pandemic are significant at the 5% level. The relationship is direct for the internal price and exchange rate variables and inverse for the external income and pandemic variables. With regard to the pandemic, it was found that although the shock has an effect on exports, this effect is limited, and the behavior of the series oscillates around the original trajectory of its historical average. Likewise, from the variance decomposition, the observed impact was uniform over the quarters, being reduced in the last two estimated quarters. In the future, the determinants of Brazilian exports, specifically to the Chinese market, the segment's main trading partner in the last five years, with an important relative share in total exports, should be explored in more depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]