Predicting the ultimate bearing capacity of spudcan in stiff-over-soft clay based on a failure model varying with soil parameter.

• The failure model of stiff-over-soft clay varying with soil parameter. • A new calculation method for ultimate bearing capacity of spudcan. A jack-up platform is prone to a 'punch-through' accident when working on the stiff-over-soft clay foundation. To assess the risk of punch-through, it is necessary to plot the bearing capacity-penetration curve for evaluating the penetration depth of the pile leg or to calculate the ultimate bearing capacity of the spudcan and compare it with the preload. However, accurate prediction of spudcan bearing capacity is not easy. In this paper, the failure mode about the stiff-over-soft clay under different geological conditions when punch-through occurs is discussed using coupled Eulerian lagrangian (CEL) method, varying the strength ratio between soft and stiff soil layers, the thickness of stiff soil relative to the spudcan diameter, and the non-homogeneity factor of soil strength. Based on the soil failure model with varying soil parameters, a new calculation method for ultimate bearing capacity of spudcan is proposed and then verified against existing centrifuge test results. The results show that the shape of soil shear plane in stiff clay is significantly affected by the strength ratio of soil layer and the non-homogeneity factor of soil strength. And the presented new method whose prediction errors compared with centrifuge test results are less than 5%, has better calculation accuracy than the ISO (International Organization for Standardization) method, which is valuable in guiding the calculation of the ultimate bearing capacity of the spudcan and ensuring the safe operation of the jack-up drilling units on stiff-over-soft clay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]