基于 Nerlove 模型的棉花种植供给反应分析−以新疆为例.

[Objective/Meaning] The cotton area in Xinjiang is the largest production base of high-quality cotton in China. By analyzing the reasons for the lack of elasticity of cotton supply in Xinjiang, it was expected to provide reference for optimizing the layout of cotton industry in Xinjiang, adjusting the industrial structure and ensuring the safe and stable development of cotton industry. [Methods/Procedures] In order to screen the main factors affecting the cotton supply in Xinjiang, the Nerlove model is used to measure the supply response of Xinjiang cotton based on the time series data of cotton planting area and price in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2020, the target price subsidy policy was introduced, and the Nerlove model was used to measure the cotton supply response in Xinjiang. [ Results/Conclusions] The study found that: the short-term price supply elasticity value of cotton in Xinjiang was 0.150, while the long-term supply elasticity value was 0.393. The lagged 1-period cotton planting area, cotton price index and target price subsidy policy had significant positive effects on the cotton planting area in the current period. Hereby, the countermeasures were put forward, such as improving the market system of cotton, adjusting the subsidy standard, optimizing the quality of cotton, and accelerating the technology investment and promotion, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]