基于SWAT模型的蓝绿水短缺指数计算与风险评价.

In order to reduce the risk of water shortage of Qinhe River Basin, this paper took Qinhe River Basin as the research object, estimated the blue and green water resources in Qinhe River Basin from 2010 to 2016 based on the output results of the SWAT model, calculated the blue and green water scarcity index through the blue and green water footprint and the blue and green water availability, and quantitatively evaluated the blue and green water shortage situation in Qinhe River Basin by dividing four risk levels of blue and green water shortage. The results show that: a) The average annual blue water resources in Qinhe River Basin are 910 million m³, accounting for 12.0% of the total water resources, and the average annual green water resources are 6.69 billion m³, accounting for 88.0% of the total water resources, and the main component of water resources in Qinhe River Basin is green water resources; b) Under the annual scale, the blue water shortage index of most molecular basins in Qinhe River is greater than 1.0, and the risk level of blue water shortage is relatively serious risk, especially in Jiaozuo City in the downstream area; c) Under the annual scale, the index of green water scarcity in each subbasin of Qinhe River shows some differences, the average annual green water shortage index in most sub-basins is in the range of 0.5-1.0, and the green water shortage faces moderate risk; On the whole, the risk level of green water shortage is lower than that of blue water shortage. Based on the analysis of water shortage indexes of blue water and green water, it put forward suggestions on reducing the water safety risk of Qinhe River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]