Strain Partitioning and Fault Kinematics in the Northern Qilian Shan (NE Tibet) Determined From Bayesian Inference of Geodetic Data.

Oblique convergence across the northern Qilian Shan is accommodated by sub‐parallel strike‐slip and thrust faults that ruptured simultaneously in the Mw 8 Gulang earthquake in 1927. We investigate the kinematics of fault loading in the northern Qilian Shan and provide insights into the conditions necessary for generating multi‐fault earthquakes. We perform Bayesian inversions for the geometry and creep rate on the fault network. We infer that all of the thrust faults are locked north of the Qilian‐Haiyuan strike‐slip fault and are accumulating elastic strain. Multi‐fault earthquakes may occurr in this fault system because the faults are simultaneously loaded by the same source of deformation and are linked together by locked fault segments. The interseismic velocity field alone can not contain the location or activity of individual faults visible in the geomorphology, therefore the short‐term geodetic measurements may not reliably indicate the long‐term behavior of the fault system. Plain Language Summary: This study aims to understand the earthquake hazard in the northern Qilian region of China. We use measurements of ground deformation between earthquakes to infer how the faults are being loaded in the region. We find that the ground deformation can be explained by a simple model with a single, slowly creeping fault at depth that loads all of the overlying faults. Large earthquakes that were caused by slip on many different faults at the same time have occurred in this region before. We suggest these so‐called "multi‐fault" earthquakes may occur because all of the faults are being simultaneously loaded by the same source of stress. Key Points: Oblique convergence in the northern Qilian Shan is accommodated by sub‐parallel thrust and strike‐slip faultingThe short‐term geodetic measurements do not constrain the thrust fault kinematics in the northern Qilian Shan over geological timescalesMulti‐fault earthquakes may be common in the region as all of the shallow thrust faults are linked together by locked fault segments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]