A computationally light-weight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazard: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1.

Efficient methods for predicting weather-related hazards are crucial for stakeholders managing environmental risks. Many environmental hazards depend on the evolution of meteorological conditions over protracted periods, requiring assessments that account for evolving conditions. The TAMSAT-ALERT approach addresses this challenge by combining observational monitoring with a weighted climatological ensemble. As such, it enhances the utility of existing systems by enabling users to combine multiple streams of monitoring and forecasting data into holistic hazard assessments. TAMSAT-ALERT forecasts are now used in a number of regions in the Global South for soil moisture forecasting, drought early warning and agricultural decision support. The model presented here, General TAMSAT-ALERT, represents a significant scientific and functional advance on previous implementations. Notably, General TAMSAT-ALERT is applicable to any variable for which time series data are available. In addition, functionality has been introduced to account for climatological non-stationarity (for example due to climate change); large-scale modes of variability (for example El Nino), and persistence (for example of land-surface condition). In this paper, we present a full description of the model, along with case studies of its application to prediction of Central England Temperature, Pakistan vegetation condition and African precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]