Research framework for low-carbon urban development: A case study of Shanghai, China.

CO 2 emissions from energy consumption, especially in cities, are significant contributors to the global greenhouse effect. Cities are playing an increasingly important role in mitigating climate change. At present, there is a lack of a comprehensive CO 2 emission research framework to provide appropriate guidance for the low-carbon development of cities. This study explores the pathways for reducing CO 2 in cities by establishing a systematic CO 2 emission research framework, which is applied to Shanghai as the research area. The framework (1) decomposes CO 2 emission factors using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), (2) analyses the decoupling state using the Tapio decoupling (TD) model, (3) evaluates decoupling efforts for driving factors, and (4) predicts future CO 2 emissions through Low the Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. The decomposition results showed that economic effect was the primary driver of CO 2 emissions in Shanghai. Energy intensity was the primary factor for reducing CO 2 emissions, and population scale was the primary factor for reducing emissions during the COVID-19. Moreover, the decoupling state of Shanghai gradually improved, which promoted the decoupling of the industrial and transportation sector, but suppressed the decoupling of the trade sector. The average decoupling effort index of energy intensity is as high as 0.84, which plays an important role in decoupling in Shanghai. Scenario simulations showed that strict and diversified policy implementation can effectively reduce CO 2 emissions and ensure Shanghai realizes peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2025. Finally, policy recommendations were proposed based on the results. This study provides a reference for the development of low-carbon cities. [Display omitted] • City-level CO 2 emission research framework is established. • Economic are the primary positive driving factors of CO 2 emission in Shanghai. • COVID-19 changed the primary negative factor from energy intensity to population. • Shanghai's overall decoupling is gradually improving but it is influenced by COVID-19. • Most effective factor of decoupling is energy intensity with effort index is 0.84. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]