新型城镇化建设对释放居民消费潜力的影响研究.

To build a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the international and domestic dual cycles reinforcing each other, it is necessary to take the expansion of domestic demand as a strategic basis, and the expansion of household consumption is an important part of it. By realizing people-centered urbanization, the new urbanization construction has promoted the release of residents' consumption potential from both supply and demand aspects, and provided a driving force for China's economy to effectively expand domestic demand. However, there is a lack of empirical analysis of the relationship between new urbanization and residents' consumption potential at the macro level. Based on the panel data of 280 cities in China from 2007 to 2019, this paper empirically studies the impact of new urbanization construction on the release of residents' consumption potential on the basis of measuring the level of new urbanization construction and residents' consumption potential, and analyzes its mechanism from the supply and demand sides of the consumer market. The study finds that the new urbanization construction can realize the expansion and upgrading of the consumer market on the supply side, promote the increase of residents' income and the improvement of consumption security on the demand side, and then fully release the consumption potential of residents. This result still holds after a series of robust tests and treatment of endogeneity problems. Further analysis shows that the new urbanization construction has a stronger effect on the release of residents' consumption potential in the eastern and northeast regions, and at the same time, the degree of industrial agglomeration and the level of digital economy development also have a positive moderating effect on the release of urban residents' consumption potential. The results of nonlinear analysis show that the release effect of new urbanization on the consumption potential of urban residents is gradually amplified, and with the improvement of the level of new urbanization, its release effect on the consumption potential of residents also gradually increases. Compared with previous studies, the marginal contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: firstly, from the perspective of research, the logical framework of new urbanization construction to release residents' consumption potential is constructed from the supply and demand sides of the consumer market, and the urbanization construction is linked to consumption growth, and how to rely on urbanization to release the strategic potential of residents' huge consumption. Secondly, in terms of measurement methods, the index system of new urbanization construction level is constructed from five aspects: population urbanization, economic urbanization, social urbanization, resource spatial intensification, and urban-rural integration, besides, the level of new urbanization construction is measured, and the consumption potential index system of residents, consumption willingness and consumption environment is designed from the three dimensions of consumption capacity, then the consumption potential of residents is measured, This method is more direct and specific than that of DID, which uses a simple 0-1 variables. Thirdly, in terms of data use, a number of medium and micro databases such as the city panel database, the industrial enterprise database, and the macroeconomic and real estate database of the State Information Center are used, and the data is more abundant and reasonable. This paper reveals the key role of urban development and industrial support in unleashing the consumption potential of residents, and puts forward policy suggestions such as diversifying consumption scenarios, supporting micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, improving the social security system, and optimizing the industrial structure, which is conducive to the further improvement of the new urbanization strategy in the future and provides a policy starting point for giving release to the potential of the domestic market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]