人工智能与产业链韧性提升.

At present, the Ukraine crisis has triggered the accelerated evolution of the world geopolitical pattern. Trade frictions and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic have increased the risk of rupture of the global industrial chain. In this context, countries have shifted from pursuing “efficiency” of the industrial chain to emphasizing both “efficiency and security”, and the issue of industrial chain resilience and security has been raised to unprecedented new heights. Improving the resilience of the industrial chain is a key component in promoting high-quality development and maintaining national security. Based on the multi-regional input-output table(ADB-MRIO)compiled by the Asian Development Bank, this paper calculates the resilience of the industry chain, then combines it with industrial robots data provided by the International Federation of Robotics(IFR)to deeply explore the impact and mechanism of artificial intelligence on the resilience of the industry chain. The study shows that:(1)overall, artificial intelligence can significantly improve the resilience of the industry chain. This result is still significantly valid under robustness tests such as dealing with endogenous problems, changing variables, changing sample range, and changing estimation methods.(2)The mechanism test results show that the effects of technological innovation and governance system optimization are the internal mechanisms for AI to enhance the resilience of the industrial chain.(3)The heterogeneity analysis shows that at the national level, artificial intelligence has a more significant impact on enhancing the resilience of industrial chain in developed countries and countries with higher levels of digital infrastructure penetration. At the industry level, compared to low tech manufacturing, artificial intelligence plays a more prominent role in enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain in mid to high tech manufacturing.(4)When considering the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, we also find that the financial crisis has weakened the positive effect of artificial intelligence on the resilience of the industrial chain. This paper contributes to the existing literature in three aspects. First, in terms of research issues, this paper provides a possible path to effectively improve the resilience of the industrial chain from the perspective of artificial intelligence, and further enriches the research on the determinants of industrial chain resilience. At the same time, we also put forward the internal mechanism of artificial intelligence to improve the resilience of the industrial chain, that is, artificial intelligence will affect the resilience of the industrial chain through two possible channels: technological innovation effect and governance system optimization effect. Second, in terms of index construction, based on the analysis of industrial chain resilience in the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Report, this paper uses the input-output method to construct the index of industrial chain resilience at the country-industry level from the perspective of intermediate input diversification, providing empirical evidence for accurately identifying the industrial chain resilience in various industries and countries. Third, in terms of research data, this paper manually links the multi-regional input-output table(ADB-MRIO)and the International Federation of Robotics(IFR)to form the dataset needed for this research. In addition, the sample interval of this study is from 2007 to 2019. Compared with previous studies using the WIOD input-output table up to 2014, it can better reflect the current new pattern of global economic and trade adjustment and has higher timeliness. The research in this paper helps to explore the possible path to ensure the resilience and safety of the industrial chain, and then provides beneficial theoretical support for achieving high-quality development under the new round of scientific and technological revolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]