Climatic, oceanic, freshwater, and local environmental drivers of New Zealand estuarine macroinvertebrates.

Understanding the responses of organisms to different environmental drivers is critical for improving ecosystem management and conservation. Estuarine ecosystems are under pressure from multiple anthropogenic stressors (e.g. increasing sediment and nutrient loads, pollution, climate change) that are affecting the functions and services these ecosystems provide. Here, we used long-term estuarine benthic invertebrate monitoring data (∼30 year time-series) to evaluate the responses of macrobenthic invertebrate communities and indicator species to climatic, oceanic, freshwater, and local environmental drivers in New Zealand estuaries. We aimed to improve our ability to predict ecosystem change and understand the effects of multiple environment drivers on benthic communities. Our analyses showed that the abundance and richness of macrobenthic fauna and four indicator taxa (bivalves known to have differing tolerances to sediment mud content: Austrovenus stutchburyi , Macomona liliana , Theora lubrica , and Arthritica bifurca) responded to unique combinations of multiple environmental drivers across sites and times. Macrobenthic responses were highly mixed (i.e., positive and negative) and site-dependent. We also show that responses of macrobenthic fauna were lagged and most strongly related to climatic and oceanic drivers. The way the macrobenthos responded has implications for predicting and understanding the ecological consequences of a rapidly changing environment and how we conserve and manage coastal ecosystems. • Long-term estuarine monitoring data (∼30 yrs) was used to evaluate the responses of macrofauna to environmental drivers. • Macrofauna responded to unique combinations of multiple environmental drivers. • Macrofaunal responses to environmental drivers were idiosyncratic and site-mediated. • Macrofaunal responses were mostly related to lagged permutations of climatic and oceanic drivers. • We highlight the complexity of predicting macrofauna responses to environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]