Balancing observational data and experiential knowledge in environmental flows modeling.

Environmental flow (e-flow) decision making relies on flow-ecology models to predict ecological outcomes under different flow regimes. While expert knowledge has traditionally informed these models, there is increasing use of data-driven approaches. We investigated data integration for Bayesian conditional probability networks (CPNs) developed through expert elicitation in an e-flows assessment in Victoria, Australia. Using synthetic datasets based on monitoring data, we assessed the impact of varying data characteristics on model outcomes. Incorporating 10 years of data had the greatest influence on model predictions compared to the expert-based models, with diminishing additional effect for longer records. Notably, the expert model based on the most non-conforming expert opinion was more sensitive to data integration than a model based on harnessing the opinion of all experts, highlighting the importance of considering diverse experiential knowledge. We provide recommendations on leveraging limited datasets and models to guide efficient monitoring and management. • Exploration of a method to incorporate monitoring data into expert-opinion built Bayesian CPNs. • Synthetic data records of varying characteristics were used to assess impact on model outcomes. • Demonstrate that complementary use of expert opinion and empirical data can enrich modeling approaches. • Monitoring data can complement expert elicitation in models to assess uncertainty and direct management efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]