China's energy-water-land system co-evolution under carbon neutrality goal and climate impacts.

China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal has significant implications for energy, water, and land systems. However, the multi-sector dynamics among China's energy-water-land system have rarely been examined explicitly. This study adopts an integrated assessment framework to simulate China's energy-water-land system co-evolution under alternative carbon neutrality scenarios and climate impacts. Results show that although the net zero emission target provides the incentive for the energy system to move away from fossil fuels, total water withdrawal will increase due to the deployment of nuclear, bioenergy, and coal power plants with carbon capture and storage. Diversifying the negative emission technologies, by leveraging direct air capture technology, can alleviate the potential water stress and land use conflicts, which would otherwise be exacerbated by large-scale deployment of afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Northwest and northeast regions of China are the hotspots experiencing water withdrawal increases, while Bohai Rim and coastal regions are identified to experience fierce land competition. This study demonstrates the potential for general applicability to carry out resource planning and policy evaluation from the multi-sector coordination perspective. • Water-intensive electricity generation technologies drive up water withdrawal. • Diversifying negative emission technologies can reduce the impacts on water system. • Climate policy imposes more significant impacts than climate change. • Water withdrawal increases concentrate in Northwestern and Northeastern China. • Land competition mostly occurs in China's population-dense area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]