A Bayesian Kalman filter algorithm for quantifying estimation uncertainty of track irregularity on bridges with randomness in system parameters.

Vehicle on-board monitoring methods use responses of running vehicles to identify track irregularity in real time. But the parameters of both the bridges and the vehicles in such processes may have a non-negligible degree of uncertainty or randomness that will inevitably lead to uncertainty in the track irregularity identification. Quantifying such uncertainty is a great challenge as the vehicle-bridge system (VBS) to be treated with is time-dependent and random. This paper proposes an on-board track irregularity identification algorithm that realizes an inverse random dynamic analysis of the VBS to quantify estimation uncertainty by using a Bayesian Kalman filter technology. The proposed algorithm utilizes sigma point sets to simulate the random parameters and the noises, and is therefore capable of implementing high-fidelity probability density propagation in the nonlinear state transfer and observation functions describing the VBS. The proposed algorithm is validated by numerical examples with various running states and parameter uncertainty levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]