DYNAMICS OF ROMANIA'S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, EXPORT AN IMPORT. A STUDY CASE IN AGRO-FOOD SECTOR, 2013-2022.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Export (E) and Import (I) in Romania and also in its agro-food sector in the last decade 2013-2022 and to quantify the relationships between these macroeconomic indicators using the data provided by National Institute of Statistics. The methodology used in this study included; fixed basis and structural indices, growth rate, statistical econometric modeling using regression equations, coefficient of correlations, coefficient of determination, comparison and illustrative methods. In 2022 versus 2013, Romania's GDP accounted for Euro 285,884.8 Million (doubled), export raised by 85.51% and reached Euro 91,944 Million, imports accounted for Euro 126,034.07 Million (2.27 times higher) and the deficit of trade balance reached Euro -34,101 Million, being 5.92 times higher. The regression equations quantified the impact of the determinants on GDP as follows: an increase in E value by one unit will determine an increase by 3.5086 units of GDP; an increase by one unit of I will determine a growth by 2.1058 units of GDP; an increase by one unit of NE will shrink GDP by 5.10849 units. In agro-food sector, the situation was the following in 2022 versus 2013: GDPA reached Euro 12,864.81 Million (+66%). EA accounted for Euro 11,959.97 Million (2.26 times higher), IA reached Euro 13,248.61 Million (2.7 times higher), NEA attained Euro -1,288.64 Million (9.4 times higher compared to 2015 level). The regression assessed the impact of the determinants on GDP as follows: an increase in EA will raise GDPA by 0.8668 units; an increase by one unit of IA will determine a growth by 0.7034 units of GDPA; an increase by one unit of NEA will shrunk GDPA by - 1.2343 units. To balance the ratio between E and I with a beneficial impact on NE and GDP, Romania has to intensify exports and diminish imports, to increase production and quality of the exported products, to identify the products which should be purchased from abroad to cover the needs on the domestic market, to offer more subsidies to producers, to extend its commercial partners on the external market and better negotiate the trade transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]