碳中和目标下黄河流域全要素碳生产率时空演化研究.

Increasing carbon productivity is an effective means to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. To coordinate the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions reduction in the Yellow River Basin, the carbon productivity of 9 provinces（regions） in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2017 is calculated. Based on DEA-Malmquist’s total factor carbon productivity model, the spatiotemporal evolution trajectory and spatial distribution pattern of total factor carbon productivity of 9 provinces（regions） is deduced. The potential improvement space of total factor carbon productivity is scientifically decomposed and the influencing factors of the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon productivity is identified. Based on this, the improvement path of carbon productivity in the Yellow River Basin is condensed. The results show that, 1) in the time dimension, the carbon productivity of 9 provinces（regions） rise steadily with the growth of per capita GDP,an increase of 283.3%, while the total factor carbon productivity remains at around 1.000. 2) In the spatial dimension, the regional heterogeneity of carbon productivity and total factor carbon productivity is relatively large affected by economic development and resource endowments, showing a spatial evolution pattern of “downstream significantly higher than midstream, and midstream slightly higher than upstream”. 3) From the point of influencing factors, the midstream and upstream belong to technical efficiency-driven, the role of technological progress is weak, while the downstream is a co-promotion type of technological progress and technological efficiency. Based on this, this paper proposes strategic suggestions such as innovating institutional mechanisms, promoting low-carbon development models, focusing on lowcarbon technology innovation, accelerating energy structure adjustment, strengthening regional integration cooperation, and improving factor allocation efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]