A bearish outlook.

The article discusses the European Union's poor relations with Russia as of June 25, 2005. For most of the past 500 years, the idea of "Europe" has served to define a shifting huddle of western countries seeking to distinguish themselves from two great Eurasian powers in the east: the Turks and the Russians. Now both Turkey and Russia think that they should be seen as part of Europe too. And Europe, as represented by the European Union, more or less agrees. The idea is pleasing, but the implications are perplexing. Russia does not seriously want to join the Union, mainly because, like America and China, it sees itself as a country too great to accept constraints on its sovereignty. But at the same time Russia hates the thought of being excluded from anything. Ideally, it would like a special relationship giving it visa-free travel in EU countries; generous access to the single market through what it calls the "Common European Economic Space", a loosely defined agenda of trade and market policies; and a voice but not a vote in EU policymaking, of the kind it already has in NATO affairs. But for the moment, to judge from the way Russian President Vladimir Putin's second term has gone so far, Russia is moving in the opposite direction, towards increased authoritarianism. The EU would be foolish to institutionalise closer ties while there is any risk that Russia will go on moving in this direction.