岩溶区燃气管道致灾概率分析: 基于易损性-灾害系统集成视角.

In order to scientifically assess the disaster-causing possibility of gas pipeline in karst area, based on the disaster system theory, the disaster event system was comprehensively analyzed based on the disaster system theory from the multiple dimensions of the activity of disaster-producing environment, the risk of disaster factors. Combining the advantages of belief propagation and updating of Bayesian network, the disaster-causing probability of disaster events was calculated layer by layer. Combined with the theory of vulnerability and reliability analysis, mathematical models were constructed based on the finite element simulation results and the characteristics of polyethylene pipeline. From the perspective of the interaction between disaster damage intensity and disaster resistance ability, the vulnerability probability of the pipeline was comprehensively calculated. The disaster-causing probability research paradigm of “event risk + pipeline vulnerability” was innovatively proposed, and an example analysis was carried out. The results show that the disaster-causing probability analysis based on the integrated perspective of vulnerability theory and disaster system theory is conducive to the scientific measurement of hazard probability of disaster-causing events based on the systematic perspective, and is also conducive to the accurate assessment of the important impact of pipeline anti-external load capacity on the disaster-causing process. The disaster causing probability of gas pipeline in ZJ karst section is 0. 866 2 × 10-3, which belongs to the unacceptable level. It is necessary to carry out continuous monitoring and scientific evaluation on karst development degree, pipeline safety level, disaster evolution trend, etc. according to cost and benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]