Probabilistic forecast-based portfolio optimization of electricity demand at low aggregation levels.

In the effort to achieve carbon neutrality through a decentralized electricity market, accurate short-term load forecasting at low aggregation levels has become increasingly crucial for various market participants' strategies. Accurate probabilistic forecasts at low aggregation levels can improve peer-to-peer energy sharing, demand response, and the operation of reliable distribution networks. However, these applications require not only probabilistic demand forecasts, which involve quantification of the forecast uncertainty, but also determining which consumers to include in the aggregation to meet electricity supply at the forecast lead time. While research papers have been proposed on the supply side, no similar research has been conducted on the demand side. This paper presents a method for creating a portfolio that optimally aggregates demand for a given energy demand, minimizing forecast inaccuracy of overall low-level aggregation. Using probabilistic load forecasts produced by either ARMA-GARCH models or kernel density estimation (KDE), we propose three approaches to creating a portfolio of residential households' demand: Forecast Validated, Seasonal Residual, and Seasonal Similarity. An evaluation of probabilistic load forecasts demonstrates that all three approaches enhance the accuracy of forecasts produced by random portfolios, with the Seasonal Residual approach for Korea and Ireland outperforming the others in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. • We proposed new low-voltage aggregation techniques based on portfolio theory to improve probabilistic demand forecasting. • The increased volatility at the low voltage level requires probabilistic forecasting to measure uncertainties. • The proposed methods were found to outperform random aggregation with the real-world data from Korea and Ireland. • A simple forecasting approach minimizing the standard deviation of deseasonalized demands was accurate and efficient. • The new method can contribute to achieving carbon neutrality, enable P2P energy sharing, and benefit prosumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]