Investigation on atmospheric radioactivity sample association using consistency with isotopic ratio decay over time at IMS radionuclide stations.

For the enhancement of the International Data Centre's products, specifically the Standard Screened Radionuclide Event Bulletin, an important step is to establish methods to associate the detections of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty-relevant nuclides in different atmospheric radioactivity samples with the same radionuclide release to characterize its source for the purpose of nuclear explosion monitoring. Episodes of anomalously high activity concentrations in samples at the International Monitoring System radionuclide stations are used as the primary assumption for being related to the same release. For multiple isotope observations, the consistency of their isotopic ratios in subsequent samples with radioactive decay is another plausible hint for one unique release. The radioxenon observations that are associated with the nuclear test announced by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in 2013 serve as case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of this basic approach and how the additionally associated samples improve the source location. We use two distinct puff releases, both of short duration, for the atmospheric transport modelling simulations to gain further evidence and confidence in our sample association study by identifying the air masses that link the releases to multiple samples. This basic approach will support the definition of analysis procedures and criteria for automatic sample association to be implemented in the Standard Screened Radionuclide Event Bulletin, which is of relevance for an expert technical analysis. • Consistency of isotopic ratios in subsequent samples with radioactive decay can be used for sample association check. • Bayesian statistics are useful for estimation of isotopic ratios and their uncertainties. • Atmospheric transport modelling simulations give further confidence for sample association check. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]