DÖNGÜSEL BİR EKONOMİYE DOĞRU TÜRKİYE: DÜŞÜK KARBONLU BİR EKONOMİ İÇİN GENİŞLETİLMİŞ STIRPAT MODELİNE DAYALI ANALİZ.

The determination of technological competence and sectoral road maps in terms of establishing and strengthening industrial infrastructure, enhancing production flexibility, promoting qualified human capital and innovation through the creation of an R&D ecosystem, and achieving a strong structure based on high-value-added exports play significant roles for the growth and development strategies of developing countries. However, for achieving all these goals requires the presence of resourceefficient production processes supported by environmentally friendly technologies and circular designs are of quite crucial for the construction of national policies particularly for the combat against global climate change at the global scale and for the developed countries, including China and EU member states. In this regard, it is thought that the aforementioned transformation and “growth with a low-carbon economic model” are required among the steps to be taken in the 100th year of the Republic. In this context expanded STIRPAT model is employed in the study. By adding the variables such as trade openness, energy consumption and industrialization to the main variables of model, namely population, welfare and technology, a more comprehensive framework is aimed to be presented for Turkey in the attainment of a low-carbon economy. In the study, data for the 1990-2020 period is utilized and are tested with ARDL bounds test. According to the results, in the long run, an increase in per capita income, trade openness, and energy consumption leads to higher carbon emissions. Additionally, the deviation from a short-term equilibrium will improve after 1.14 years and converge to the long-term equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]