主产区粮食增产影响因素及发展应对研究——基于南北主产区差异视角.

[Objective] The present paper aimed to explore the grain production pattern and influencing factors in the major production areas, provided a certain basis for stabilizing the overall situation of national food security and formulating differentiated grain policies. [Method] By means of concentration degree, gini coefficient, logarithmic mean divisia index and cultivated land pressure index, quantitatively analyzed the factors influencing the increase of grain production in major grain producing areas from 2000 to 2020, such as the change of grain production center, variety structure, contribution to increase production, resource bearing capacity and production cost. [ Result] ( i) From the change of grain production center, more than 95 % of the grain increment came from the major grain producing areas, and the major producing areas in the north contributed more to the increase, especially Shandong, Henan and Heilongjiang, which occupied the top three areas of grain output and sown area for a long time. (ii) In terms of the production centers of different food crops, the production centers of wheat, com and beans were stable in the major grain producing areas in the north for a long time, while the production centers of rice and potato were mainly concentrated in the major grain producing areas in the south, but the production centers of rice gradually showed a trend of northward deviation. (iii) From the perspective of contributing factors, the grain increase in the major grain producing areas mainly depended on the increase of yield per unit area, and the contribution rate of yield per unit area to grain increase reached 61. 16%. The grain increase in the major grain producing areas in the north was due to the combined effect of cultivated land area, multiple cropping index, grain crop proportion and yield per unit area. Due to the decrease of cultivated land area in the major grain producing areas in the south had a negative effect on grain increase, the grain yield increase was more dependent on unit yield increase and multiple cropping index. (iv) From the perspective of resource carrying capacity of grain production, the dilemma of uneven distribution of water and soil resources has not been improved for a long time. The constraints of water resources in the major grain producing areas in the north were increasingly strengthened, while the pressure of cultivated land resources in the major grain producing areas in the south was continuously high. ( v) From the change and structure of grain production cost, the average grain production cost in the major grain producing areas was rising continuously. The land cost in the major grain producing areas in the north was higher, and the labor cost in the major grain producing areas in the south was higher. The grain production cost in the major grain producing areas in the north was higher than the whole country and the major grain producing areas in the south for a long time, and the rising rate was slightly faster than that in the major grain producing areas in the south. [Conclusion] Establishing the food security responsibility mechanism shared by the producing and marketing areas, constructing the differentiated compensation mechanism; Strictly observing the grain sown area, adjusting the structure of regional grain varieties; Consolidating scientific and technological support for grain increase, promoting coordinated development of water and soil resources and grain production; Taking multiple measures to improve grain production efficiency, and enhancing the enthusiasm of various subjects to grow grain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]