Performance evaluation of non-repairable cyclic phased-mission systems using evidential reasoning rule and multi-valued decision diagrams.

• A phase duration calculation method is proposed based on multi-phase identification. • The components' fuzzy state probability vectors are acquired using the evidential reasoning rule. • A performance evaluation model of cyclic phased-mission systems is constructed by multi-valued decision diagrams. • A phase duration adjustment method based on the evaluation results is proposed. • The proposed method is verified by a performance evaluation case study on satellite turntable system. Phased-mission systems (PMS) often perform different missions that have multiple consecutive, non-overlapping phases. Many recent studies have focused on the reliability analysis for PMS. However, not much attention has been paid to the PMS performance evaluation and the phase cycle characteristic of PMS. In this paper, a performance evaluation method of non-repairable cyclic phased-mission systems (CPMS) is proposed. Considering the uncertainty caused by the change of phase duration and component performance degradation, the average duration of each phase and the fuzzy state probability vector of each component are obtained by the evidential reasoning rule (ER rule). Then, the multi-valued decision diagrams (MDD) manipulation rules suitable for cyclic phase conditions are proposed, and the component state composition path generation method based on cycle-end component states is developed. On the above basis, MDD models for CPMS (CPMS-MDD) in different states are established, and the system performance is evaluated by the continuous time Markov chains (CTMC). A phase duration adjustment strategy is further proposed based on the evaluation results. The effectiveness and correctness of the proposed method are verified by case studies on performance evaluation of satellite turntable system. Comparative study shows the concise and efficient of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]