Agro-meteorological drought risk assessment in the groundnut basin of Senegal: the case of the municipalities of Djilor, Diossong, Keur Samba Gueye and Toubacouta.

Agriculture drought is a recurrent phenomenon that affects most parts of Sahel regions. With the advent of various satellite data, drought risk assessment has become more accessible, but the challenge lies in choosing a well-defined time scale. This study aims to contribute to agricultural drought monitoring, based on the calculation of composite indices using the MODIS sensor in the Senegalese Groundnut basin. The approach is based upon vegetation condition and health (VCI, VHI) and temperature (TCI) indices. Subsequently, those indices were evaluated based upon crop yield data, and a Holt-Winter forecasting was performed to determine the driest month in 2020-2021. Here we show that all investigated communes are sensitive to drought, especially Keur-Samba Gueye (in July, September, and October). Based on its significant correlation with VCI and TCI (R²>0.57), VHI was proven to be a reliable water stress indicator. Our approach demonstrates the Groundnut basin’s vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]