Gulf of Mexico larval dispersal: Combining concurrent sampling, behavioral, and hydrodynamic data to inform end-to-end modeling efforts through a Lagrangian dispersal model.

We developed a Lagrangian larval dispersal model to estimate trajectories for eleven fish taxa inhabiting the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Dispersal models are at family level resolution for Scaridae, Lutjanidae, Scombridae, Labridae, Ophichthidae, and Ophidiidae, at genus level resolution for Hemanthias , and at species level resolution for Trachurus lathami, Decapterus punctatus, Katsuwonus pelamis, and Euthynnus alleteratus. Hydrodynamics are provided by the West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM). Larval samples are from the spring and fall SEAMAP ichthyoplankton surveys from 2007 to 2011. The Lagrangian model was run backwards/forwards in time from the sampling event to estimate spawning/settlement locations. Results were used to update larval dispersal dynamics in the GOM Atlantis 'end-to-end' ecosystem model for twelve functional groups. We compare dispersal and non-dispersal scenarios in the Gulf of Mexico Atlantis model and find differences in stock abundance and distribution of fish. This highlights that the abundance and distribution of fishery resources are sensitive to changing circulation patterns. This work takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding larval dynamics and their impacts on ecosystems at the intersection of predictive statistical modeling, hydrodynamic modeling, and ecosystem modeling. • Synchronous data collection and modeling efforts are needed for place-based studies. • Both retention and export of larvae occur on the West Florida Shelf. • Spawning and settling sites reflect both ocean conditions and behavioral choices. • Including dispersal in ecosystem models can change the distribution of production. • Understanding larval movement can play a key role in adaptive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]