International trade in future avoided emissions: The case of battery electric vehicles and the United States.

The impact of international trade on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has primarily been viewed through the lens of emissions embodied in goods, which flow from lower-income to higher-income countries. This trade has been interpreted as allowing the high-income countries to shirk their responsibilities to address the global climate challenge by offshoring emissions. However, international trade may also have an impact on climate through flows from higher-income to lower-income countries, particularly long-lived capital and durable goods that have the potential to avoid future emissions. Given the innovation resources concentrated in higher-income countries and their historic domination of trade in such long-lived goods, this concept may balance the scales to some degree. This paper briefly develops the concept of future avoided emissions and illustrates it with the empirical case of the United States' trade in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2017 to 2020. • Trade in capital goods may reduce future emissions in importing countries. • Such trade may balance trade in goods that embody emissions. • Trade in BEVs is an example, reducing future emissions from conventional cars. • A case study of US BEV trade reveals a surplus in future avoided emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]