自然变化和人类活动影响下区域虚拟水贸易定量分析.

The virtual water trade in a region is affected by both natural factors and human activities. In order to quantitatively study the influence of human activities to the virtual water trade, a new quantitative comparative analysis method was proposed in this paper. By adjusting the natural climate factors into a uniform standard, this paper quantitatively analyzed the impact of the increase and decrease of external water diversion and the strictest water resources management policies on the virtual water trade in agricultural and industrial sectors by year and inter-year. Taking Shandong Province as an example, this study applied this method to make a quantitative analysis of virtual water trade in Shandong Province in the past 20 years. The results show that with the development of economy, the net output curves of agricultural and industrial virtual water are U-shaped and irregular inverted U-shaped, respectively. Virtual net water output can adversely affect the local water environment. In 1997, when the Yellow River stopped flowing, the decrease of water diversion reduced the net virtual water output of agriculture and industry by 20.13% and 49.67%, respectively. In 2017, the input of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project increased the net virtual water output of agriculture and industry by 1.32% and 41.99%, respectively, compared with that without the diversion, while the implementation of the strictest water resources management policy reduced it by 10.01% and 20.39%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]