Multiple criteria analysis for electrifying off-grid island using renewable energy microgrid or submarine cable.

• A multiple criteria analysis method is proposed to compare renewable energy and traditional solutions for off-grid island power supply. • Life cycle cost is used to build the economic model. • The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to quantify the risk level. • A simulation platform is built to obtain the energy utilization. • Applied to the actual project to verify the feasibility of the method. Renewable energy microgrids are a new option for powering remote islands. To explore the feasibility of constructing island microgrid in China, based on the failed Dongfushan Island Demonstration Microgrid Project caused by equipment failure, low economic benefits, low residents' satisfaction, and poor power supply stability, this paper compares two power supply methods, microgrid and submarine cable. A systematic multiple criteria analysis method is established to compare these two methods, including economic analysis, risk assessment, energy spilled and energy shortage. Net present value and the life-cycle cost method are used to establish the economic cost model. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to establish the risk assessment model. Additionally, the simulation using PVsyst software is used to calculate the energy spilled and energy shortage. Furthermore, future trends are predicted with data to provide suggestions for decision-makers. Multiple criteria analysis results showed that energy spilled and shortages are inevitable for the use of microgrid on seasonally tourist islands like Dongfushan Island, with energy spilled and shortages rate as high as 50.11% and 37.57% in the worst case. The microgrid risk level is relatively low risk, higher than the lowest risk level for submarine cables. At full capacity, the cost of microgrid (34.03 million yuan) is comparable to submarine cables (30.31 million yuan), making the latter more suitable for power supply due to its better reliability. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]