An investigation of pathways for rebuilding Australia's sheep flock.

Context: A significant opportunity remains to further increase the supply of premium sheepmeat products to Australia's customers, which requires a more rapid rebuilding of the national sheep flock. To help meet this challenge, developing relevant information for sheep producers to assist them to achieve a profitable flock-rebuilding outcome is viewed as highly desirable. Aims: (1) Develop flock-rebuild scenarios that track inventory, cashflow, profit and loss, and the overall balance sheet over a 5-year projection. (2) Model the impact on flock-rebuilding pathways of exposure to variation in supplementary-feed costs, purchase of stock and price received for sale animals and flock structure. (3) Model variation in benefits and costs for a range of production zones, enterprise types and flock-age profiles. Methods: Fourteen flock-rebuilding pathways were assessed for up to nine flock types, using a spreadsheet model that tracked inventory, cashflow, profit and loss, and the overall balance sheet over 5 years. Key results: The top four pathways for profitability and capacity to rapidly rebuild flock numbers include retention of more older ewes, purchasing young ewes, purchasing older ewes (mostly 5–6-year olds) in Merino and Merino-cross flock types only and joining ewe lambs in Maternal and Cleanskin flock types only. These pathways were not sensitive to variation in the cost of supplementary feed, stock prices or flock structure, although joining Merino ewe lambs became one of the top four pathways when feed costs were lower. Conclusions and implications: The well established practices of retaining ewes for longer and purchasing ewes, especially young ewes, have the most potential to both rapidly and profitably rebuild flock numbers. However, joining ewe lambs, particularly in Maternal and Cleanskin flocks, can also profitably contribute to rapid flock rebuilding. While reducing reproductive wastage or increasing reproductive potential were mostly profitable, they could not rapidly rebuild flock numbers. In contrast, accelerated lambing systems can rapidly rebuild flock numbers, but are only marginally profitable. The outlook for Australia's sheepmeat industry is very positive, with a significant opportunity available to further increase the supply of premium sheepmeat products to customers, by more rapidly rebuilding the national flock. This paper presents the findings of a study focussed on providing the confidence and material to sheep producers to choose optimal pathways to rebuild their flocks. At least 6 of the 14 alternatives investigated were deemed suitable for commercial use and not sensitive to variations in supplementary-feed costs, stock-purchasing and -sale prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]