碳循环、气候变化与金融风险 --基于DSGE模型.

Climate change will lead to an increase in extreme weather events and economic losses, which will further affect financial stability and require timely assessment and response by relevant departments. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to construct a reasonable climate financial analysis framework, analyze how climate change affects financial variables in detail, and formulate targeted policies and measures in combination with transmission paths. This paper constructs a DSGE model including carbon cycle, climate change factors, and multiple economic entities under the framework of financial accelerator and simulates the impact of climate change on output, asset prices, corporate default rate, and total credit. The results show that: ① The impact of climate change reduces output, capital price, and return on capital, increases the level of external financing premium, and pushes up the leverage ratio and credit default rate of enterprises, which in turn leads to a credit crunch and reduced investment. ② The impact of carbon intensity increases output, capital price, and return on capital, reduces the level of external financing premium, reduces the leverage ratio of enterprises and the default rate of corporate credit, and then causes credit expansion and investment increase. ③ The impact of emission reduction intensity mainly affects the macro-economy through cost drives. In the short term, the economy is negatively affected by the impact of emission reduction. In the long term, with the rapid recovery of output, the demand for investment and credit increases, thus promoting economic growth. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: ① Assess the scale of climate change risk in the financial system timely and accurately, and prevent the impact of non-traditional systemic risks on the financial market. ② Actively promote the rapid development of green and low-carbon technologies, and promote the win-win results of pollution and carbon reduction and output increase. ③ Improve the analysis framework of the economic model of climate change and enhance its practical explanatory power and theoretical guidance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]