Global Suitability Analysis of Current and Future Climates for Rainfed Wheat Production.

Climate change is projected to impact wheat production stability around the world. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of climate suitability of rainfed wheat under current and future climates helps to minimize crop production risks and ensure food security. This study determines climate suitability of rainfed wheat worldwide with a water-limited yield (Yw) of at least 10 t ha− 1 under current and future climatic conditions. Climate information from 469 stations worldwide was used in this study. The relationship between climate factors and the Yw at the reference weather stations was investigated using boundary line analysis. A three-segmented function was then used to classify regions based on the optimum range of each factor into unlimited and limited classes. The climate suitability layer was then created by overlaying the classified layers. The results indicated that about 30% (~ 66 Mha) of the world's wheat cultivation areas are in suitable climate zones (unlimited class), and about 70% (~ 155 Mha) are in unsuitable climate zones (limited class). The majority of the suitable climate areas are found in the Europe, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Under future climate scenarios, the climate suitability for rainfed wheat is likely to decrease markedly at low and mid latitudes. The findings of the study highlight that temperature is a slightly more limiting factor than precipitation while climate change conditions will intensify the negative effects of both. The method proposed in this study is simple for large-scale assessment and replicable for other crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]