Land cover change in marginalised landscapes of South Africa (1984-2014): Insights into the influence of socio-economic and political factors.

Rural landscapes in South Africa experience high conversion rates due to intense land use; however, the changes are site specific and depend on the socio-economic and political history of the area. Land cover change (LCC) was assessed in response to socio-economic and political factors in uThukela Municipal District, KwaZulu-Natal, using Landsat imagery from 1984 to 2014, while making comparisons to other studies in South Africa. Socio-economic/political data were used to gain insights into the observed LCC patterns. Land cover was classified using a random forest classifier, and accuracies ranging from 87% to 92% were achieved. Systematic and intensity analysis methods were used to describe patterns, rates, and transitions of LCC in Imbabazane (ILM) and Okhahlamba (OLM) local municipalities. The results showed a reduced rate of change intensity from 3.4% to 0.9% in ILM and from 3.1% to 1.1% in OLM between 1984 and 2014. Grassland was persistent, covering over 70% in both local municipalities between 1984 and 2014. Although persistent, grassland experienced respective losses of 3.7% and 14.3% in both observation periods in ILM and of 10.2% and 13.3% in OLM. During the analysis period, settlements and cropland gained actively in both local municipalities. The changes represent a degree of population, local authority, and people's perception as influencers of land use and LCC. It is therefore argued that socioeconomic and political changes can potentially influence land use and LCC; however, natural ecosystems can persist under those conditions, and this requires more research efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]