The Dynamics of Societal Transition: Modeling Nonlinear Change in the Polish Economic System.

Social influence plays an important role in social transitions. The model of dynamic social influence is used to model social transitions. We assume that individuals communicate with a certain number of others to find out how much support each of the possible opinions has. Opinions of others located nearby and of those who are most influential are given the most consideration. Individuals adopt the opinions that they find most influential in the process. During social transitions the spatial clusters of social reality of the "new" coexist with the reality of the "old." Computer simulations show that social transitions occur as clusters of the "new" grow and connect to each other at the expense of the "old." Analysis of regional economic as well as voting data support this scenario. In a society composed of clusters, global indicators might be misleading, since they may average the thriving clusters of new and decaying clusters of old. Effective facilitation of the transition should capitalize on natural properties of social change processes. It should be concentrated on the creation and growth of the clusters of the "new." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]