低碳城市试点对劳动就业的影响机制及其异质性.

Employment is the foundation of people ’s livelihoods, and a low-carbon transition is a key development theme for China in the future. The impact of reducing CO2 emissions as a hard macroeconomic constraint on the labor market is an important economic issue. This paper used China’s low-carbon city pilot policy as a representative policy to study the low-carbon transition. Firstly, based on the analysis of typical economic facts and policy texts, it was found that there might exist two distinct low-carbon transition approaches in China. The study then examined the differences in the policy impact on labor employment in the first and second batches of pilot cities, analyzed the underlying mechanisms, and finally constructed a general equilibrium model based on the empirical findings to further elaborate the heterogeneous impact pathways from a theoretical perspective. The study showed that: ① There was a difference in the policy impact on employment in the first and second batches of pilot cities. The policy increased employment in secondary and tertiary industries and total employment in the first batch of pilot cities, but it increased employment in tertiary industries and decreased employment in secondary industries in the second batch of pilot cities. ② There was a difference in the mechanisms of policy impact on employment in the first and second batches of pilot cities. Under the influence of the policy, the first batch of pilot cities adopted the low-carbon transition approach of focusing resources on the secondary industry, while the second batch of pilot cities adopted the lowcarbon transition approach of focusing resources on the tertiary industry. ③ The low-carbon transition approaches of the two batches of pilot cities had their own advantages and disadvantages. The approach of the first batch of pilot cities achieved a reduction in total CO2 emissions and an increase in the number of jobs, with the disadvantage of increasing the intensity of CO2 emissions and reducing the disposable income of workers, failing to improve the quality of employment. However, the approach of the second batch of pilot cities reduced the intensity of CO2 emissions, increased employment in the tertiary industry, and increased the disposable income of workers, effectively improving the quality of employment but failing to achieve a reduction in total CO2 emissions and an increase in total employment. Accordingly, China’s goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality can be achieved either by industrial transformation and upgrading or by enhancing the development of the tertiary industry, but the best way is to develop the tertiary industry on the basis of industrial transformation and upgrading without blindly adopting the de-industrialization approach to achieve the peak carbon emission goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]