Trade drives leakage of life-cycle carbon dioxide emissions from plastics in China over 2010–2021.

Trade drives increased life-cycle carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and carbon leakage from plastics, increasing the environmental burden on the supply chain. Therefore, assessing the characteristics and drivers of plastic carbon emissions will help develop emission reduction strategies from a supply chain perspective. In this study, we present a model framework for life-cycle assessment, optimized input-output analysis, and structural decomposition analysis. Specifically, for the first time, we assess the life-cycle CO 2 emissions of plastics in China, the world's largest producer and consumer, and consider the input, production, consumption, and income stages of the plastic supply chain. China's plastic CO 2 emissions increased by 38.07% from 2010 to 2021 and, under a business-as-usual path, will consume 4.2–5.4% of the global carbon budget by 2050. From a supply chain perspective, each economic sector assumes different responsibilities for emissions at different stages. Despite increasing emissions, China's economic structure has potentially improved the embodied carbon leakage from the intersectoral and international trade in plastics. Furthermore, regarding socioeconomic factors, the levels of final demand (63%) and primary input (61%) dominated the increase in plastic CO 2 emissions from 2012 to 2020, and the intensity of emissions was the key to reducing emissions. The novelty of this study is that the model we proposed can solve the data limitations of the global plastics supply chain and focuses for the first time on the input and income stages and their drivers. [Display omitted] • An optimized input-output approach is applied to study plastic CO 2 emissions. • The importance of inputs and income on plastic CO 2 emissions is revealed. • Characteristics and drivers of plastic CO 2 emissions in the economic sector are investigated. • The potential impact of the economic structure on plastic-embodied carbon leakage is analyzed. • Measures to reduce CO 2 emissions from different trade supply chain perspectives are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]