Development trend of Pakistan's natural gas consumption: A sectorial decomposition analysis.

Natural gas is a crucial transitional energy for Pakistan to attain the emission reduction goal for sustainable economic growth. To imply environmentally-friendly fuel and save foreign exchange, huge indigenous resources can be used. Under sustainable policies, Pakistan's natural gas is predicted to adequately rise, which will significantly impact energy security, economy and environment. The objective of the study is to analyze NGC factors' decomposition in Pakistan from 1996 to 2020, applying the logarithmic mean Divisia index method to provide evidence of the effect of key factors, including NGC intensity, income and population effects. The results show that: (a) during 1996–2020, natural gas is raised maximally due to the rise in income and population levels. (b) Population effect was the second key driver of gas rising, while the intensity effect was added to slow down during the maximum intervals. With the rising trend of a population between 0.12 and 0.22 billion, it is the only leading factor that is increasing the NGC to maximum level. (c) The sectorial outcomes influenced population growth with positive income, evidenced by the per capita. Looking forward to the energy targets, prediction highlights that sustainability and energy security could be guaranteed by modifying technological progress and environmental policies. • Natural gas intensity, income and population are studied under planning period. • Logarithmic mean Divisia index method is employed to evaluate NGC factors. • Income and population factors are the key driver of NGC growth. • NGC intensity was contributed to slow down during the maximum intervals. • Sectorial differences impacted the population growth with positive income growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]