Quantitative detection and attribution of soil moisture heterogeneity and variability in the Mongolian Plateau.

• Precipitation, NDVI, and LUCC dominated recipitation the spatial heterogeneity of SM. • Precipitation changes caused up to 40% of the drying up of SM. • SM anomalies at 28–289 cm mainly caused by one-month-old precipitation. • The influences of climate and vegetation were observed to decrease with soil depth. As an essential state variable of the earth's terrestrial system, soil moisture (SM) is highly significant regarding hydrological processes, agricultural production, land management in response to issues like soil erosion etc. However, the net effects of different environmental factors on the heterogeneity and variations of SM remain unclear, due to the complex interactions between variables. Indeed, investigating such effects in the highly climate-vulnerable Mongolian Plateau is imperative for water resource management and climate change adaptation. In this study, we analyzed the contributions of different environmental factors on the spatial heterogeneity and variations of SM in the Mongolian Plateau between 1982 and 2020, using a geographic detector model (GDM) and a novel nonlinear Granger causality model. The results of the GDM analysis demonstrated that precipitation and vegetation were the main controls relevant to SM heterogeneity, with their explanatory powers (Q statistics of GDM) found to be higher than 0.67. In two breakpoints—one in the early 1990′s and another in 2007—SM demonstrated a pattern of increase, then a decrease, subsequently followed by an increase (insignificant decrease in SM at 100–289 cm depth only). Precipitation was identified as the Granger causal of SM variations over 33.39–97.65% of the plateau's vegetated area, leading to the drying up of 40% of its SM. The greatest contribution to SM in 28–289 cm of the plateau was observed as coming from one-month-old precipitation, due to the lag in the manifestation of effects. Further, rising temperatures were found to have an immediate influence (2.73–5.23%) on SM in 14.61–54.90% of the whole plateau's vegetated area, an impact which was relatively high (>14%) in its northeastern wetting zone. Vegetation change posed a relatively weak effect (<2%) on SM over a limited area of the plateau (27.75–35.42%). Although lesser than the impacts of general climate changes, the contributions of climatic extremes could not be neglected, ultimately accounting for up to 10% of SM changes. In summary, this study provides new insights into the individual contributions of various environmental factors on the spatial heterogeneity and variations of SM in the Mongolian Plateau, offering vital information for policymaking regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation, sustainable use of water resources, and ecological restoration for arid and semi-arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]