中国省域碳达峰与基本现代化“双目标” 何以协同实现？.

China has embarked on a new journey of building a modern socialist country in all respects. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to discuss how to achieve the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and basically realizing modernization together. Based on the statistical data of provincial carbon emissions and economic development characteristics from 1997 to 2019, this paper proposed an empirical model of systematic analysis using the improved Kaya‑GDIM model and the expanded economic growth model, with total energy consumption as the transmission variable. This paper also used the Mann Kendall trend test, the Tapiocarbon decoupling index, and other methods to study and judge provincial carbon emissions and economic development status. On this basis, we divided the provinces with similar characteristics into groups. Based on the comprehensive investigation of the characteristics of the driving factors of combined carbon emissions and economic growth among provinces, we proposed a matching coordinated realization scheme for the goals. The results showed that: ① According to the comprehensive judgment based on the multivariate index, 30 provinces could be divided into four categories. ② Provinces should choose the coordinated realization scheme according to the characteristics of their carbon emissions and economic development driving mechanisms. The leading demonstration group should focus on the deployment and R&D of high energy efficiency technology and the improvement of total factor productivity. The quality improvement group should focus on promoting the transformation of production factors from quantity to quality improvement. The quantity growth group should focus on improving the dilemma of insufficient quantities of physical and human capital. The structural transformation group should adhere to the energy transformation and ensure a fair transformation. ③ In recent years, the slowdown of economic growth has effectively alleviated the rapid increase of carbon emissions. However, there is still much room for improvement in relevant work. In the future, we must speed up the low carbon regulation capacity and promote the decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions, which are key to the smooth realization of the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and basically realizing modernization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]