Probabilistic prediction of post-earthquake rubble range for RC frame structures.

In the post-earthquake environment, the rubble generated by the collapse of buildings will seriously affect the functionality of the transportation system, like post-disaster medical rescue, personnel evacuation, and material transport. A reasonable prediction of the distribution range of rubble from building structure collapses is vital for assessing city seismic resilience. This paper focuses on this topic from a probabilistic perspective. Twenty-two ground vibrations are the first input for reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures at different floors to simulate their collapse behavior in earthquakes. The model of rubble distribution range is then proposed to comprehensively consider the uncertainties of the ground motions and structures. The corresponding risk model is finally developed. Building heights, uncertainty associated with ground motions, the likelihood of structural collapse, and the likelihood of the interval distribution of debris are all taken into consideration by the model. The statistical analysis indicates that the proposed model can provide a reasonable prediction of the simulate results. The results can be used as a reference for city government decision-makers to develop emergency plans and as a basis for assessing the road network's capacity after an earthquake. • Methods for predicting the rubble distribution range of RC frame structure damage states after an earthquake are proposed. • Model the RC frame structure based on beam and shell elements, as well as verify the rationality of the modeling approach. • Establish a rubble distribution range prediction model correlated with building height and ground motion parameters. • The rubble distribution distance of a known RC frame structure can be determined by the corresponding exceeding probability. • The risk range model of rubble distribution considering the probability of collapse of RC frame structures was established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]