Phylogenetic analysis of the origin and spread of plague in Madagascar.

Background: Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, highly prevalent in the Central Highlands, a mountainous region in the center of Madagascar. After a plague-free period of over 60 years in the northwestern coast city of Mahajanga, the disease reappeared in 1991 and caused several outbreaks until 1999. Previous research indicates that the disease was reintroduced to the city of Mahajanga from the Central Highlands instead of reemerging from a local reservoir. However, it is not clear how many reintroductions occurred and when they took place. Methodology/Principal findings: In this study we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic model to detect and date migrations of Y. pestis between the two locations that could be linked to the re-emergence of plague in Mahajanga. Genome sequences of 300 Y. pestis strains sampled between 1964 and 2012 were analyzed. Four migrations from the Central Highlands to Mahajanga were detected. Two resulted in persistent transmission in humans, one was responsible for most of the human cases recorded between 1995 and 1999, while the other produced plague cases in 1991 and 1992. We dated the emergence of the Y. pestis sub-branch 1.ORI3, which is only present in Madagascar and Turkey, to the beginning of the 20th century, using a Bayesian molecular dating analysis. The split between 1.ORI3 and its ancestor lineage 1.ORI2 was dated to the second half of the 19th century. Conclusions/Significance: Our results indicate that two independent migrations from the Central Highlands caused the plague outbreaks in Mahajanga during the 1990s, with both introductions occurring during the early 1980s. They happened over a decade before the detection of human cases, thus the pathogen likely survived in wild reservoirs until the spillover to humans was possible. This study demonstrates the value of Bayesian phylogenetics in elucidating the re-emergence of infectious diseases. Author summary: In 1991 human cases of plague were reported in the city of Mahajanga, located in the west coast of Madagascar, after 60 years without human cases. Existing evidence suggests that Yersinia pestis, the causal agent of the disease, was reintroduced to the city from a mountainous region known as the Central Highlands. We performed a phylogeographic analysis on 300 Y. pestis genome sequences to determine how many migrations of the pathogen between the two locations were related to the reappearance of the disease in Mahajanga. The results revealed that two migrations from the Central Highlands were the cause of the outbreaks of plague in the west coast of the country during the 1990s. We also aimed to date the emergence of the Y.pestis variant that circulates in Madagascar and is also present in Turkey. To do this, we conducted a molecular dating analysis using an extended data set of 445 sequences, which contained sequences from Turkey and India (the country from which the pathogen was exported to Madagascar for the first time). The analysis indicated that this particular variant emerged in the first decade of the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]