Current and future potential soil organic carbon stocks of vegetated coastal ecosystems and their controls in the Bohai Rim Region, China.

[Display omitted] • SOC stocks of VCEs were estimated and projected at a 10 m spatial resolution. • Climate and soil salinity are critical for estimating SOC stocks in the VCEs. • Warming would decrease SOC stocks of VCEs by enhancing SOC decomposition. • Increasing precipitation would increase SOC stocks by reducing soil salinity. • SOC stocks of VCEs in the Bohai Rim could reduce ∼ 12 % − 19 % between 2041 and 2100. Vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCEs) have much higher organic carbon sequestration rates and storage capacities than most other earth surface ecosystems, and thus play a vital role in blue carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. However, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock assessment in VCEs at a large regional-scale remain problematic, and the controlling mechanisms for SOC remain poorly understood. Here, we estimated current and future SOC stocks of VCEs in the Bohai Rim Region, China at a spatial resolution of 10 m, using a data-driven method based on multi-source data; and investigated the key environmental and anthropogenic controls. The total SOC stocks and SOC density of VCEs in the Bohai Rim Region were estimated to be approximately 62.7 Tg carbon and about 68.8 Mg ha−1, respectively (in the upper 1 m of soil). We found that climate and soil salinity are the most critical environmental controls of SOC stocks within VCEs in the region. Increasing temperature and soil salinity would increase SOC decomposition and decrease plant productivity, resulting in a decrease in SOC stocks. Conversely, increasing precipitation would increase SOC stocks by reducing soil salinity. We projected that the potential losses of SOC stocks due to the combined effects of climate changes, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic disturbances would be ∼ 12.2 % between 2041 and 2060 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), extending to 19.3 % between 2081 and 2100. The decreases in SOC stocks would occur mainly in the higher latitude and colder regions. The study demonstrated the potential significant reduction in SOC stocks in coastal ecosystems and provided an important framework for better understanding the blue carbon ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]