Changes of serum metabolites levels during neoadjuvant chemoradiation and prediction of the pathological response in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Introduction: Previous studies have explored prediction value of serum metabolites in neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (NCRT) response for rectal cancer. To date, limited literature is available for serum metabolome changes dynamically through NCRT. Objectives: This study aimed to explore temporal change pattern of serum metabolites during NCRT, and potential metabolic biomarkers to predict the pathological response to NCRT in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. Methods: Based on dynamic UHPLC-QTOF-MS untargeted metabolomics design, this study included 106 LARC patients treated with NCRT. Biological samples of the enrolled patients were collected in five consecutive time-points. Untargeted metabolomics was used to profile serum metabolic signatures from LARC patients. Then, we used fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) to explore temporal change patterns in metabolites cluster and identify monotonously changing metabolites during NCRT. Repeated measure analysis of variance (RM-ANOVA) and multilevel partial least-squares discriminant analysis (ML-PLS-DA) were performed to select metabolic biomarkers. Finally, a panel of dynamic differential metabolites was used to build logistic regression prediction models. Results: Metabolite profiles showed a clearly tendency of separation between different follow-up panels. We identified two clusters of 155 serum metabolites with monotonously changing patterns during NCRT (74 decreased metabolites and 81 increased metabolites). Using RM-ANOVA and ML-PLS-DA, 8 metabolites (L-Norleucine, Betaine, Hypoxanthine, Acetylcholine, 1-Hexadecanoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, Glycerophosphocholine, Alpha-ketoisovaleric acid, N-Acetyl-L-alanine) were further identified as dynamic differential biomarkers for predicting NCRT sensitivity. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of prediction model combined with the baseline measurement was 0.54 (95%CI = 0.43 ~ 0.65). By incorporating the variability indexes of 8 dynamic differential metabolites, the prediction model showed better discrimination performance than baseline measurement, with AUC = 0.67 (95%CI 0.57 ~ 0.77), 0.64 (0.53 ~ 0.75), 0.60 (0.50 ~ 0.71), and 0.56 (0.45 ~ 0.67) for the variability index of difference, linear slope, ratio, and standard deviation, respectively. Conclusion: This study identified eight metabolites as dynamic differential biomarkers to discriminate NCRT-sensitive and resistant patients. The changes of metabolite level during NCRT show better performance in predicting NCRT sensitivity. These findings highlight the clinical significance of metabolites variabilities in metabolomics analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]