Low-dose glucocorticoids withdrawn in systemic lupus erythematosus: a desirable and attainable goal.

Objectives To assess the risk of flare in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients after low-dose glucocorticoid (GC) discontinuation and to evaluate the risk factors of flare. Methods SLE patients who ever discontinued GCs were identified from the Peking University First Hospital SLE cohort. The disease flare profile after GC discontinuation was analysed. The flare rate was analysed using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Cox regression was used to determine the effects of variables on SLE flare. A prognostic nomogram using Cox proportional hazards regression modelling was developed. Results A total of 132 SLE patients were eligible for the final analysis. They were followed up for a median of 21.8 months (interquartile range 9.01–36.7). The cumulative probability of flare after GC discontinuation was 8.3% at 6 months, 16.8% at 1 years and 27.5% at 2 years. In multivariate Cox analysis, hypocomplementemia and serologically active clinically quiescent (SACQ) were independent risk factors of flare [hazard ratio (HR0 2.53 (95% CI 1.32, 4.88); HR 3.17 (95% CI 1.44, 6.97), respectively]. Age ≥40 years at GC withdrawal and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) usage were independent protective factors of flare [HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.29, 0.99); HR 0.32 (95% CI 0.17, 0.62), respectively]. The protective effect of HCQ was dosage related. From the perspective of different tapering strategies embodied as the duration from prednisone 5 mg/day to complete discontinuation, a slower tapering strategy (12–24 months) significantly reduced the risk of flare compared with a faster tapering strategy (<3 months) [HR 0.30 (95% CI 0.11, 0.82), P  = 0.019]. The prognostic nomogram including the aforementioned factors effectively predicted the 1 and 2 year probability of being flare-free. Conclusion Low-dose GC is feasibly discontinued in real-life settings. SACQ and younger age are potential risk factors of SLE flare, while HCQ use and slow GC tapering to withdrawal can reduce relapse. The visualized model we developed may help to predict the risk of flare among SLE patients who discontinued GC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]