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Uncertainty sources in flood projections over contrasting hydrometeorological regimes.

Authors :
Castaneda-Gonzalez, Mariana
Poulin, Annie
Romero-Lopez, Rabindranarth
Turcotte, Richard
Chaumont, Diane
Source :
Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques. Dec2022, Vol. 67 Issue 15, p2232-2253. 22p.
Publication Year :
2022

Abstract

This study evaluates the uncertainty of four components of the hydroclimatic modelling chain on flood projections over 96 basins covering contrasting hydrometeorological regimes located in Canada and Mexico. Two ensembles of climate simulations are considered, a large ensemble of 22 global climate model simulations and a smaller ensemble of three high-resolution regional climate model simulations. The other components are two post-processing techniques, three lumped hydrological models and six probability distributions. These four sources are assessed through a method of variance decomposition applied to six flood indicators over a reference period and two future periods: 1976–2005, 2041–2070 and 2070–2099. Systematic differences are observed between basins with contrasting flood-generating processes. Snow-dominated basins consistently show larger variance contributions from hydrological models, while rain-dominated basins show climate simulations as their dominant source. These results underline the need to consider the variability of each component's uncertainty contribution and its link to hydroclimatic conditions and dominant processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
02626667
Volume :
67
Issue :
15
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
160623034
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2137415