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Calibrating safety-based design charts for horizontal curves using system reliability analysis and multivariate models.
- Source :
-
Journal of Transportation Safety & Security . 2022, Vol. 14 Issue 12, p1997-2028. 32p. - Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- The majority of previous studies on reliability-based highway design focussed on assessing the risk associated with only one mode of non-compliance (i.e. insufficient sight distance on horizontal curves using 2 D sight distance calculations). Only a handful number of studies established a link between risk levels and collisions. This paper calibrates safety-based design charts for horizontal curves considering a system reliability analysis (i.e., multi-mode) where the non-compliance could result from limited sight distance and vehicle skidding. The paper first utilised LiDAR data to collect curve attributes and assess the Available Sight Distance in a 3 D environment on 244 horizontal curves in Alberta, Canada. Monte Carlo Simulation was then used to calculate the associated risk levels, and full-Bayes multivariate Poisson lognormal regression was utilised to develop statistically significant safety performance functions that relate risk levels to collisions. Safety-based design charts were calibrated to relate curve attributes to risk levels and collisions. The calibrated charts showed the importance of using multi-mode reliability analysis. An example of using the calibrated charts in estimating the expected safety benefits of geometric improvements was introduced. The developed charts can offer designers a tool to estimate the safety consequences of design alternatives and aid the decision-making process of rehabilitation projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19439962
- Volume :
- 14
- Issue :
- 12
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Transportation Safety & Security
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 160566069
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1992552